Who lives here?
Infrastructure must never be modelled only from the perspective of investors.
Estimated · confidence Medium · provenance
Atlas composite (Nairobi City County, Kenya Power, UN-Habitat) · 2025. Atlas does not present modelled output as observed fact. Where confidence is low, treat the value as a hypothesis to be tested, not a measurement.
Primarily the 1.9M people connected to the improved system, plus firms whose outage costs fall.
Tariff payers and taxpayers, unless the capital stack is deliberately structured otherwise.
Today: the public balance sheet and host communities. It does not have to be that way.
Utility, regulator, financier. Communities are typically consulted after design freeze.
Informal workers, tenants, downstream water users, and future generations.
1.9M beneficiaries; +34% resilience; 410K tCO₂e avoided.
310M capital, plus operating and maintenance obligations for 20+ years.
Tariff and wheeling rules · FX risk on imported equipment · Interconnection approval time · Land tenure at community nodes
Local hydrology, tenure, maintenance capability, political continuity.
Speed versus participation; financial return versus affordability; scale versus reversibility.
Who owns this in year 25? What happens to the workforce when it is automated? What is the exit if demand never arrives?